Hi guys. Oh boy, this is a tad hard to explain but I'll give it a crack.
Firstly, I can't explain why SPAC investors redeem their shares, no one can except each of those investor, as each would have their own list of reasons. Some may be decide they've change their mind since SPAC IPO, and don't want to invest in companies this year at all and keep it in bonds or cash. Some (specially insto) simply don't want to invest on the target company, such as personal reasons eg. the fund manager doesn't invest in mining. SZZL is not special on that regard.
SZL's proposal has a forecast of 75% redemption (along with 25% and 50%) for a reason. There's really no way of telling until investors file to redeem, and all SPAC mergers has this risk. In my view, and this may be a biased view, there's $45M reasons why this merger should go ahead.
A monetary tightening cycle doesn't help either. 3% return on bonds is a safe return, and a safe return is a good investment. Everyone has their quarterly and yearly ROI targets.
SZZL's redemption rate looks bad when looking at it from EUR losing out on a USD100M investment opportunity, but look at it another way, that's USD45M of funds from investors willing to buy CRML shares at an almost billion dollar valuation. A reminder that the goal here is to sell shares, in exchange for dilution (% ownership of asset), provides a higher valuation.
When it comes to SPAC mergers, what's important is the target company's ability to IPO. It would be interesting to know of other interested parties on bidding at IPO that are not SZZL investors, as EUR could as easily sell CRML shares to the market as to SZZL investors.
SPAC merger type IPOs share price starts at $10. It can dip or it can go for higher, no one knows, and follow similar uncertain patterns as any company's IPO, that analysts pretends able to explain. The prospectus usually promises an increase in share price to something like $11.50 per share, together with warrants to entice current shareholders not to sell at $10.34 or whatever the added interest of Trust account gained over time while invested in bonds. Basically it's like saying, don't sell now before merger, sell later at a higher share price plus you can keep your free warrants for long-term exposure.
So redemption can't simply be explained whether or not the target company is a good one or bad one. Redemption is there to provide investors the choice whether or not they want to risk their capital investment comes merger, not necessarily about whom the SPAC will merge with but a mechanism so investors are not forced or coerced into investing on what the Board decides as the target company.
Sooner or later, mining companies goes through M&A. I take comfort of the fact that, at least at present, EUR target is to acquire assets, not to be acquired as an asset. Because ultimately, worst case scenario is the whole company gets sold off to a bigger company, and we can all then speculate how much EUR is worth, if to sell our shares as shareholders.
In my view, CRML is simply a mechanism to raise capital, as a strategy.
I still have faith on the merger and the DFS being delivered. Happy to wait out the outcome of promised deliverables for this quarter before having an opinion on it.
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