I'll just write it out briefly, in terms of what i think is most...

I'll just write it out briefly, in terms of what i think is most to least important with the news flow over the last 24 hours:

1: Chairman Bundey confirming he's reviewing the decision on Chris Ellison's tenure at Min Res. If CE stays this is a huge plus for the stock. When Bundey interviews the current shareholders my guess is they'll unamibously all want CE to stay on. The dumb woke superfunds who don't appreciate CE's acumen are all out. So i'd say there is a very high likelihood this longer tenure occurs: the best capital allocator in the mkt (39 % pa return), allocating $1 bn per yer of free cash flow from Onslow; that's a party i want to be part of.

2: L1 Capital: largest holder confirmed Onslow is "going really well". Unqualified praise, not "look its had these issues but turning around etc, or going well", but "GOING REALL WELL"; in other words surprising on the upside. My guess is Lamm's alluding to what i have been banging on about; there is an easy expansion to 50 m t pa with very little capital spend, and the system is performing with capacity a lot better than expected.
Raph Lamm has a 17% per annum return over 10 years; you can short into him if you want, but i would think its a great way to lose money quickly.

3: Iron ore prices up:
SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Prices and SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Futures Prices - Barchart.com
It is more the move in the forward curve which is encouraging, with prices up 1% across the curve, and still at $88 to July 27! If prices are as predicted by the forward curve, which is the best unbiased predictor, the shorts in Mins get smashed.

4: Lithium miners rallied overnight, Ablemarle up 7%, Lithium Americas up 5%. Not sure why? People smarter than me will let me know.

I would sit back and enjoy watching the dumb money that are maintaining/increasing their shorts in MINs here get smashed. It may not all happen today, or tomorrow, but it will happen over the next year as it rises to $50.

Each tonne of production at Onslow produces $33 of free cash flow for MINs at spot prices, and they are producing at 32 m t pa currently, nameplate is 35 m t p a, and there is a simple expansion to 50 m t pa.

Mins trades on a price to free cash flow ratio of 4.4 in FY 26, 3.8 in Fy 27, and generates $16 of free cash flow over the next 3 years at current spot prices.

Enjoy.