(Adds late-day prices, comment on Bitcoin, Ether plunge)
The dollar slid on Tuesday as rising German bond yields strengthened the euro, but a strong reading of the consumer price index later this week could reverse the currency's slide.
Traders kept an eye on U.S. midterm elections, whose outcome may usher in an era of divided government in Washington that would likely foil big social spending plans by Democrats.
A steady climb in German bond yields weakened the dollar on expectations of further European Central Bank tightening, which cut the spread with Treasury yields, said Marc Chandler, chief market speculation at Bannockburn Global Forex.
"I've played down the elections. For monetary and fiscal policy, I don't think it's much of a difference," he said. "What I'm focusing on today is a huge move in two-year German bunds. It's not about the Fed, it's about more aggressiveness from the ECB."
The yield on the two-year bund DE2YT=TWEB rose to 2.196%, a 25-basis-point gain from a week ago.
CPI data is due to be announced on Thursday, with economists forecasting the monthly and annual core numbers to advance 0.5% and 6.5%, respectively. Signs of improving inflation, though, might not slow the Federal Reserve's policy tightening that federal fund futures forecast will peak at 5.095% in June 2023.
"Inflation is going to moderate some more, but the service sector might not be giving us enough pricing relief," said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
"Once we've fully priced in peak Fed tightening, then you'll see a major reversal. A lot of people are trying to get ahead of that and they've been trying to do that all year and they've been getting burned."
The euro EUR= rose 0.55% to $1.0074, while the Japanese yen strengthened 0.75% against the dollar at 145.55.
The Fed could raise interest rates by 50 basis points when policymakers meet in December, again by the same amount in February and another 25 basis points at their March meeting, Moya said.
The interest rate differential with other currencies favors dollar strength, as do potentially severe recession risks abroad and China's ongoing struggles with COVID restrictions, he said.
Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether plummeted on contagion concerns after crypto exchange Binance signed a nonbinding agreement to buy rival FTX's non-U.S. unit to help cover a "liquidity crunch."
If speculation that FTX's token FTT are being used as collateral prove true, there will be a similar domino effect as seen earlier this year with Luna, said Charles Hayter, chief executive and co-founder of data firm CryptoCompare.
But Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital, doubted bitcoin faces an extreme scenario. "It could see increased inflows as market participants withdraw from riskier assets," he said.
Bitcoin fell 11.13% to $18,299.00 after earlier hitting its lowest since November 2020 at $17,114.0. Ether ETH=BTSP plunged 16.23% to $1,313.70.
======================================================== Currency bid prices at 4:28PM (2128 GMT)Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Dollar index =USD 109.5700 110.2100 -0.56% 14.537% +110.6200 +109.3600 Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.0076 $1.0017 +0.59% -11.37% +$1.0096 +$0.9972 Dollar/Yen JPY=EBS 145.5450 146.6350 -0.74% +26.44% +146.9300 +145.3150 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 146.66 146.91 -0.17% +12.54% +146.9900 +146.0000 Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9853 0.9887 -0.33% +8.03% +0.9927 +0.9838 Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 $1.1547 $1.1516 +0.23% -14.65% +$1.1598 +$1.1430 Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.3427 1.3492 -0.45% +6.22% +1.3527 +1.3387 Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 $0.6506 $0.6482 +0.36% -10.51% +$0.6551 +$0.6445 Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 0.9928 0.9903 +0.25% -4.25% +0.9936 +0.9883 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8723 0.8700 +0.26% +3.85% +0.8744 +0.8692 NZ NZD=D3 $0.5962 $0.5941 +0.32% -12.92% +$0.6000 +$0.5899 Dollar/DollarDollar/Norway NOK=D3 10.2215 10.2140 +0.07% +16.02% +10.3160 +10.1790 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 10.3008 10.2324 +0.67% +2.88% +10.3305 +10.2356 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 10.7504 10.8316 -0.21% +19.21% +10.8958 +10.7160 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.8356 10.8580 -0.21% +5.85% +10.8850 +10.8098 <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
