- Dollar falls broadly
- Currencies price in low chance of big U.S. stimulus
- Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
(Adds comments on jobs report, updates prices; previous LONDON)
The dollar sank to its lowest level in over two months against a basket of peer currencies on Friday, as vote counting for the contentious U.S. elections slowly moved toward a divided government and investors predicted more losses for the currency.
Investors are betting that Democrat Joe Biden will become the next president but Republicans will retain control of the Senate, which will make it difficult for the Democrats to pass the larger coronavirus relief package they have been pushing.
The need for more stimulus was underlined on Friday when the U.S. government reported that employers hired the fewest workers in five months in October. It was the clearest evidence yet that the end of previous fiscal stimulus and exploding new coronavirus infections were sapping momentum from the economic recovery.
"We're still left with the view that the U.S. economy is decelerating, and that's playing out in a markedly weaker dollar," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.
Biden maintains an edge over Republican President Donald Trump, but a few important states are still counting votes and Trump is mounting legal challenges to ballot counts, so there is still a high degree of uncertainty.
The surge of new coronavirus cases to record levels in several U.S. states could also curb economic activity.
The dollar index =USD fell against a basket of six major currencies to 92.461, hitting its lowest level since Sept. 2.
For the week, the dollar index was down as much as 1.7%, on course for its biggest drop in almost four months.
A large decline in long-term Treasury yields due to expectations for less fiscal stimulus, combined with a rally in equities and other riskier assets, has placed the dollar under consistent selling pressure that is likely to continue.
"So far investors have been prepared to overlook the threat of a contested election, presumably seeing Donald Trump’s legal initiatives as 'frivolous' and these benign conditions have generated a broad-based dollar decline," said strategists at ING.
The dollar fell further against the Japanese yen, trading at 103.58 yen JPY=D3 on Friday, close to an eight-month low.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has vowed to work closely with overseas authorities to keep currency moves stable, because a strong yen is widely viewed as a threat to Japan's economy.
The recent currency moves have been big enough to set up a brief reversal. "We could see some end-of-week profit-taking catch up with the euro and the yen," Western Union Business Solutions' Manimbo said. "But it looks like there's the potential for dollar sentiment to continue to erode in the weeks ahead."
The onshore yuan CNY=CFXS fell to 6.618 per dollar but still remained close to its more than two-year high reached on Thursday.
Many investors expect a Biden administration would slightly scale back Trump's trade war with China, which should benefit the yuan.
Against a buoyant euro EUR=EBS , the dollar traded at $1.1858 after falling 0.87% in the previous session.
The single currency has risen sharply this week on the dollar's weakness, but has also benefited from news of the European Union inching closer to a budget deal.
======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:57AM (1457 GMT)Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.1858 $1.1828 +0.26% +5.78% +1.1891 +1.1796 Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 103.5850 103.5500 +0.08% -4.59% +103.7500 +103.1950 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.82 122.40 +0.34% +0.71% +122.9300 +122.2300 Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9017 0.9042 -0.27% -6.81% +0.9056 +0.8985 Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.3108 1.3153 -0.33% -1.15% +1.3156 +1.3094 Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.3067 1.3046 +0.17% +0.59% +1.3096 +1.3038 Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.7246 0.7285 -0.52% +3.29% +0.7287 +0.7239 Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.0690 1.0694 -0.04% -1.49% +1.0703 +1.0676 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.9046 0.8991 +0.61% +6.98% +0.9055 +0.8990 NZ NZD=D3 0.6765 0.6774 -0.15% +0.52% +0.6801 +0.6756 Dollar/DollarDollar/Norway NOK=D3 9.1855 9.1700 +0.23% +4.78% +9.2395 +9.1425 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 10.8985 10.8550 +0.40% +10.78% +10.9345 +10.8294 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 8.6645 8.6959 -0.03% -7.31% +8.7300 +8.6361 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.2749 10.2782 -0.03% -1.86% +10.3155 +10.2580 <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Dollar falls to 2-month low https://tmsnrt.rs/2GxqA2M^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
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