The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it might nearly be done with monetary tightening.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 eased to a more than two-month low of $0.6690 and was last down 0.45% at $0.6702 as the central bank raised its cash rate as expected by 25 basis points to the highest in more than a decade at 3.60%.
But in a dovish move, the RBA changed a reference to further rate "increases", saying instead that "further tightening" would be needed, suggesting that the central bank might be nearing the end of its cycle of increases.
"An initial glance at RBA's statement suggests they are nearing the end of the tightening cycle, and perhaps one step closer to publicly discussing a pause," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.
Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index =USD , which measures it against six major rivals, was flat at 104.24, having slipped 0.26% overnight. The index is down 0.6% for the month following a 2.6% gain in February.
The euro EUR=EBS was up 0.03% to $1.0681, holding its nearly 0.5% rise overnight. Sterling GBP= was last trading at $1.2037, up 0.13% on the day, while the kiwi NZD=D3 rose 0.08% to $0.620.
The Japanese yen JPY=EBS was mostly flat at 135.93 per dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday, when the central bank is set to stick to its ultra loose monetary path.
Data on Tuesday showed Japan's real wages fell the most in nearly nine years in January as four-decade-high inflation squeezed the purchasing power of consumers.
Investor attention will firmly be on Powell's testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the February jobs report due on Friday also keenly awaited.
Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest Markets, said Powell would likely express heightened concern about inflation but would probably stop short of raising expectations for a 50 basis point rate increase on March 22.
After delivering significant rises last year, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its past two meetings, but resilient economic data throughout February stoked fears of the central bank going back to bigger steps.
"We suspect he will sound noncommittal for now and take his cues from the looming upcoming key data," said Cummins, who expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year. FEDWATCH
OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said Powell's testimony will be one of the last instances of Fed officials speaking before the black-out period commences ahead of the FOMC meeting.
"We will be looking for clues on how extended this hiking cycle may be, how high terminal rates may go and whether the magnitude of hike will increase," Wong said, adding he expects the dollar to be volatile between now and the next Fed meeting.
======================================================== Currency bid prices at 0627 GMTDescription RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.0682 $1.0684 -0.01% -0.31% +1.0693 +1.0676 Dollar/Yen JPY=EBS 135.8950 136.0800 -0.11% +3.58% +136.1650 +135.9000 Euro/YenDollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9299 0.9308 -0.08% +0.58% +0.9314 +0.9297 Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.2037 1.2027 +0.10% -0.45% +1.2048 +1.2017 Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.3617 1.3612 +0.03% +0.49% +1.3618 +1.3600 Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.6702 0.6732 -0.44% -1.67% +0.6748 +0.6690 NZ NZD=D3 0.6201 0.6197 +0.04% -2.36% +0.6214 +0.6190 Dollar/Dollar All spots FX= Tokyo spots AFX= Europe spots EFX= Volatilities FXVOL= Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ TKYFX
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