- Fed seen sticking to dovish stance
- Dollar/yen keeps gains
- Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
(Adds new comment, FX table, updates prices, changes byline, dateline previous LONDON)
The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday, moving within narrow ranges, ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy statement and a speech by President Joe Biden later in the day when the U.S. president is set to announce more stimulus plans.
Though the greenback recovered from a one-month low hit earlier this week, investors expect the U.S. central bank to maintain its policy settings and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is seen as likely to repeat his dovish message.
"Commodity prices are starting to go up and the price of anything in the production and supply chain is also starting to go up. There's certainly a level of inflation there," said Juan Perez, FX strategist and trader, at Tempus Inc.
"But I expect Powell to repeat what he has always said that price increases are expected especially after what we have gone through during the pandemic. But unless we hit full employment, the Fed will stay put," he added.
While currency markets were generally calm, signs of nervousness were evident in the bond markets where yields US10YT=RR on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose above 1.60% after tepid auction results.
U.S. yields on Wednesday ahead of the Fed were little changed, with those on the benchmark 10-year note at 1.627% US10YT=RR .
With the consensus broadly that the Fed will remain on hold, any small shift in rhetoric could trigger an outsized move in markets.
In mid-morning trading, the dollar index rose 0.1% at 90.953 =USD , bouncing from Monday's low of 90.679, its weakest level since March 3, though investors were not convinced a recent downtrend had ended.
"The Fed has been fighting a rearguard action against calls for higher rates in the face of extremely strong data and the prospects of more stimulus, and most likely they will keep the same phrasing as before," said John Marley, CEO of forexxtra, a London-based FX consultancy.
Investors' inflation expectations, measured by the break-even inflation rate calculated from U.S. inflation-linked bonds US10YTIP=TWEB , rose above 2.40% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2013.
The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.2074 EUR=EBS , off Monday's two-month high of $1.2117. The dollar stood at 108.97 yen JPY=EBS , up 0.1% on the day, having jumped 0.59% overnight and extending its recovery from a seven-week low of 107.48 touched last week, in tandem with rises in U.S. bond yields.
Biden is expected to roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the largest-ever increase in levies on investment gains, in order to fund about $1 trillion in childcare and other social spending.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar AUD=D4 dropped 0.1% to US$0.7759 after the country's consumer price index came in weaker than expected.
======================================================== Currency bid prices at 10:10AM (1410 GMT)Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Dollar index =USD 90.9040 90.8970 +0.02% 1.026% +91.1270 +90.8970 Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.2081 $1.2093 -0.10% -1.12% +$1.2093 +$1.2056 Dollar/Yen JPY=EBS 108.8000 108.7300 +0.07% +5.31% +109.0750 +108.6850 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 131.45 131.48 -0.02% +3.57% +131.6600 +131.4000 Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9136 0.9137 -0.01% +3.27% +0.9181 +0.9137 Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 $1.3898 $1.3910 -0.08% +1.73% +$1.3909 +$1.3863 Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2377 1.2402 -0.20% -2.80% +1.2418 +1.2377 Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 $0.7761 $0.7768 -0.07% +0.90% +$0.7770 +$0.7726 Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1035 1.1045 -0.09% +2.11% +1.1075 +1.1037 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8691 0.8686 +0.06% -2.75% +0.8707 +0.8686 NZ NZD=D3 $0.7234 $0.7209 +0.37% +0.75% +$0.7234 +$0.7189 Dollar/DollarDollar/Norway NOK=D3 8.2405 8.2790 -0.43% -4.01% +8.2965 +8.2400 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.9570 10.0007 -0.44% -4.87% +10.0255 +9.9496 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 8.3653 8.3743 -0.13% +2.06% +8.3980 +8.3676 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.1044 10.1180 -0.13% +0.28% +10.1340 +10.1060 <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
