I reckon the banks will refinace. What BBI ord holder's need to realise is that ICR at headstock level is dropping. From memory at June 2008 it was 8 times, December 2008 around 4 times now around 2.5 times (please check as I really don't have the time at present).
These ratios show how cash is not flowing to the headstock, which indicates more cash is being consumed at asset level. I assume this is in the nature of increased maintenance capex, increased interest and increased equity funding of organic capex, along with falling margins in some of the transport business (Euroports, PD Ports).
If worse comes to worse, BBI can always (as discussed earlier)convert Beppa, consolidate and capital raise. People holding ords now would need to believe that BBI can handle the refinance, trade its way through to better times and/or achieve the necessary asset sales at book and above and manage minimal dilution.
Significant risk, however the reward will be multiples of the current sp. I think management are trying to do this, however they need a few things to fall in line and are not in total control over the situation (it only takes 1 of the syndicated banks to throw a spanner into the works).
If anything, BBI is a very interesting corporate case and I have learnt much from investing here. Time will tell.
Cheers
BBI Price at posting:
7.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
