SMN 2.52% 58.0¢ structural monitoring systems plc

Pretty much all the issues that Boeing came up with this time...

  1. 658 Posts.
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    Pretty much all the issues that Boeing came up with this time (eg corrosion testing the coating) should be non-issues in future for other applications.

    There were some interesting nuggets in the report. Whilst valuation conclusions are RAAS' you have to assume the inputs eg pricing came from management. I had previously said I thought their model of a licence fee based on sharing the cost saving (for CVM) was going to be a hard sell to the airlines, it seems they have dropped it since it is not included in these calcs.

    A little while back people were wondering what their new firefighting radio sold for. Seems to be USD 15k at a good margin given own IP:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6474/6474272-b6837a11d5c72056a9262626bed81956.jpg
    That would actually seem to be a more valuable market for them than 737 APB (taken in isolation) as the 737 APB will be a "once and done" for the affected aircraft, whereas that firefighting fleet I imagine has a reasonably higher turnover/shorter life of aircraft and therefore an ongoing replacement opportunity.

    The report has been prepared on a more conservative basis than management estimates:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6474/6474365-180a1270beb55402e6d3140d130c7514.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6474/6474358-b4f89517100d5bf925af2e9cf69a0ab1.jpg
    That's 500 + Delta. So revenue would be 71 x $40k ($2.8m) + 500 x $100k ($50m) based on management's target. Whereas their valuation is based on:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6474/6474385-e0fd488028d739ceb812bee27b8f59d7.jpg


 
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