Euro near 4-month high ahead of ECB meeting
September rate cut signals awaited
Gold holds near record highs
Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh Graphic:World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
Stock markets pulled out of tech-led tumble on Thursday, as attention turned to whether the European Central Bank would signal September as its next likely point to cut interest rates after sitting on its hands at its latest meeting.
It was a busy day all round.
Wall Street was hoping for a Nasdaq reboot after its worst day since December 2022 . Japan's yen wilted after scaling a six-week high, while both the bond markets and euro EUR=EBS were hearing from Christine Lagarde after the ECB left its only-recently pruned rates
untouched
. Given that its policymakers have not been pushing backagainst market expectations, BNP Paribas economist Luca Pennarola said that "barring any shocks" September was now their preferred date for the next rate cut.
His colleague Mariana Monteiro said it would be important to hear whether Thursday's decision - which was fully expected - was unanimous given an emerging divergence over a potentially spluttering economic recovery but also stubborn pockets of inflation.
"We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path," Lagarde said in her opening remarks.
Back in the FX market, the U.S. dollar =USD was still loitering close to its weakest level in four months against a basket of currencies.
Comments from Federal Reserve officials have bolstered the case for September cut in the U.S. too. That in turn meant gold XAU= was perched near its recent record highs.
Wall Street futures were going up. Europe's STOXX 600 was to snap a three-session losing streak with carmaker stocks .SXAP driving the benchmark index with a 1.8% rise.
Tech .SX8P was only fractionally higher though after a 4.4% slump on Wednesday - also its worst day since December 2022 - following a report that the U.S. was considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS has seen a sub-index of IT stocks .MIAPJIT00NUS drop 2.5% overnight. Tech-heavy South Korean shares .KS11 slipped 1.5%, while Taiwan stocks .TWII fell 2%.
The yen's overnight strength and the sharp drop in chip stocks took Japan's Nikkei .N225 down more than 2%, although the yen came off in Europe after daily data showed little fresh evidence of intervention from authorities.
"This volatility spike is now leading to some broader risk reduction as investors worry about stretched positioning," said Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific investment strategist at Legal and General Investment Management.
TAKE, TAKE, TAKE Broader risk sentiment was also still jittery after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Wednesday Taiwan "did take about 100% of our chip business" and should pay the U.S. for its defence as it does not give the country anything.
China stocks had wavered as investors awaited policy news from a key leadership gathering in Beijing. The Shanghai Composite index .SSEC made a late push to end up 0.55% although the tech sector .CSIINT still finished down.
The dollar index =USD , which measures the U.S. currency versus six peers, was 0.1% higher at 103.78, not far from the four-month low of 103.64 it touched on Wednesday.
Jobs data just out showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, although there has been no material shift in the labor market it suggested.
The data is typically noisy in July anyway because of summer breaks and temporary factory closures.
The yen JPY=EBS was last at 156, while the euro was hovering at $1.0930 as ECB chief started to speak in Frankfurt.
Bank of Japan data suggested Tokyo may have bought nearly 6 trillion yen last week to lift the frail yen away from the 38-year lows it has been rooted to since the start of the month.
The yen has dropped 9.5% against the dollar this year as the wide interest rate difference between the U.S. and Japan weigh, creating a lucrative trading opportunity, in which traders borrow the yen at low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for a higher return, known as carry trade.
Analysts, however, said last week's suspected moves by Tokyo might lead to traders unwinding some of their positions.
"It feels like the tide is shifting a little here and it's generating some discomfort for yen funded carry traders," said James Athey fixed income portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management.
In commodities, gold XAU= was 0.5% higher at $2,469 per ounce just below the record high of $2,483.60 it touched on Wednesday.
Oil prices were on the rise again, with Brent LCOc1 futures 0.4% higher at $85.45 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 gained 0.7% to $83.43.
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