The fall of car sales in china in july is a false indication of demand. After july all vehicles sold must have emissions 6 standard. Hybrid and full EVs will be the only thing available. Outside of china auto makers have invested EV production lines, they can't change. Ford will be releasing f150 as an EV. Tesla is exempt from tariff. Lithium is not on US tariff list.
Pls will not produce 300kt in 2019, the funds are not there for stage 2&3. Posco will not have supply in 2021, 15 months from now. Going by GXY h1 report, A40 is worth the debt, as some have pointed out. The creditors have full control over plant, tenements and all subsidiaries. By end of 2019, if converters do not restock, they will be at zero stockpile. GXY is already talking to new customers, listen to the transcript.
The whole of H1 had 2×15kt revenue. Q3 will have 60kt + 15kt( from june) as revenue. H1=30 vs q3= 75kt in revenues.
If the A40 loan is not recovered in cash, it will be as assets.
With the mines down, supply has been reduced against CAGR 15-20%. Energy storage is growing even faster. Google energy storage and ebikes/scooters. Laptops and smartphones are changing every six months, all new batteries needed for each model.
Sqm and Alb cannot physically increase production without pumping more brine. The water is not there. Opec will increase oil production, oil will fall.
Toyota payed 7.50 for ORE.
Gangfeng 64c, GW 55c, posco 94c for pls.
VW now nearly 100b for battery and production lines.
Investing now make you smarter than all of them. VW, Toyota, posco and Mitsubishi all have trading house research.
Cheers. Invest wisely and stay solvent.
GXY Price at posting:
$1.12 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
