News: IPL Incitec Pivot Announces Unplanned Downtime Affecting Fy19, page-11

Guys its no big change here at all, see JPM updated research from this:

We are updating our model following IPL’s announcement today regarding unplanned outages to its Louisiana and Phosphate Hill plants with a combined FY19E EBIT negative impact of A$45m. We decrease FY19 EBIT from A$665m to A$607m, update commodity prices, and revise our Dec-19 PT to A$4.10 from A$4.20. Retain Overweight.

Key changes below:

Louisiana ammonia plant's outage to result in ~A$25m lower EBIT and reduced production of 80,000 tonnes in FY19. We revise our FY19 DNA EBIT to A$282m from A$315m and our FY19 Louisiana production volumes to 720 kt from 800 kt (320 kt in 1H19 and 400 kt in 2H19). The outages are due to issues in the plant’s carbon dioxide removal system in the ammonia production process. The plant has been down for ~2.5 weeks since mid-Jan 19 with an expected repair timeline of an additional ~2.5 weeks, completion expected in mid-Feb 19.

Phosphate Hill plant's outage to result in ~A$20m lower EBIT and reduced production of 50,000 tonnes in FY19. We revise our SCI FY19 EBIT to A$97m from A$125m and our FY19 Phosphate Hill production volumes to 950 kt from 1,000kt (450kt in 1H19 and 500 kt in 2H19). The outages are due to leakages in the plant’s phosphoric acid plant in early-Jan 19. The repair works are complete and the plant is resuming operations as per normal.

We have updated key commodity prices to reflect recent pricing conditions. Key earnings revisions summarized overleaf.