This update again is disappointing in its lack of detail...

This update again is disappointing in its lack of detail concerning the reasons for the shutdown, or should we call it 'the debacle', and the actions taken to try to ensure that these incidents don't happen again.

The loss of production - one sixth of a year at the major plant - reduced potential Profit after tax, according to IPL's management, by a whopping $124 million. This loss is more than the total profit IPL made in either Fiscal 2021 or 2020 for all its businesses! Yet shareholders get only a short note that congratulates workers "on the ground" ( where else would you find them?) for taking all of the estimated range of time to fix the problem.

And the IPL estimate of loss is quite inaccurate - it was based on the profit metrics of ammonia production at the Waggaman plant back in early Feb, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the consequent curtailment of 20% of global maritime supplies and the massive European gas price hikes and limited supplies that forced European ammonium producers to shut down their plants.

Since then, ammonia prices have skyrocketed. S&P Global commented on April 1st that "FOB Middle East ammonia prices have risen nearly 40% over the last month". From mid Feb to mid April, they've risen far more, leading to a real additional loss of profit after tax to IPL shareholders of close to A$50 million - or 40% higher than indicated by IPL management. Shouldn't the ASX have been advised of the correct figure? (Note that gas prices in the US have risen very modestly in this period, allowing potentially huge profits from Waggaman once it can be operated properly.)

We've also heard that management now seems less certain that it will be able to recover some of these losses from its insurers than it seemed in its first announcement - any reason? And why not take up a proportion of the expected insurance recovery in first half results?

Its also worth thinking about whether management will reverse its too-soon ? decision to impair $107 million on the Cheyenne Manufacturing Plant to recognise the "decline of the thermal coal markets" (they're booming?) and another $102 million on the Gibson Is plant because of the uncertainty of gaining a renewed gas contract beyond the end of this year.

There's a lot that needs a proper explanation. But despite the issues, if the Waggaman plant can operate at rated capacity - maybe just confirm what that is now please - then IPLs PAT is currently running at an annual rate of $1.3 to $1.5 billion, giving a spot PER of a little over only 5 times. Plenty of room for price appreciation.