So we have essentially sold between 3.25% and 4.5% of the project for US$65 million dependant on how much the Government owns.
So the total value that Ganfeng is paying for this project is:
- Gov @ 10% - sale of 4.5% - value of US$1,444m
- Gov @ 20% - sale of 4% - value of US$1,625m
- Gov @35% - sale of 3.25% - value US$2,000m
In each of these scenarios, the value of Leo Lithium's share of the project is in USD and AUD (using exchange rate of 0.65) is:
- Gov @ 10%, LLL @ 36% - LLL value of US$520m (AU$800m)
- Gov @ 20%, LLL @ 32% - LLL value of US$520m (AU$800m)
- Gov @35%, LLL @26% - LLL value of US$520m (AU$800m)
Our current market cap at 50.5 cents is $598m. So Ganfeng's latest purchase is putting a value on Leo at 34% higher than the latest market cap, or a share price of 68 cents. This price is a 17% discount to the initial AU$106 million strategic placement to Ganfeng at 81 cents which was announced on 29 May 2023 when Spodumene concentrate prices were around US$4000 for 5.3-5.5% material. The fact that Ganfeng have provided relatively minimal discounting whilst the price of Spodumene has come down a further 75% to under $1000 (at that grade) seems decent.
The Mali Government gets the first 10% for free, but the remaining 10-25% will need to be purchased at market value and it will be through reductions in taxes paid, so essentially we will have lower opex on the project in the initial years.
The cash cost of the project is around the US$400/tonne mark, and if we do not have to pay taxes in the initial years whilst the government "purchases" the additional 10-25% of the project, LLL will be quite profitable at these low Lithium prices of $1000.
At current prices of $1000, profit should be around:
Stage 1 (500ktpa) in 2024 - Project profit US$300m
- Gov @ 10%, LLL @36% - US$70m (AU$108m) (assuming 35% goes to Mali royalties and taxes)
- Gov @20%, LLL @32% - US$96m (AU$148m) (no taxes and royalties to Mali in initial years)
- Gov @35%, LLL @26% - US$78m (AU$120m) (no taxes and royalties to Mali in initial years)
Stage 2 (1000ktpa) in 2026 - Project profit US$600m
- Gov @ 10%, LLL @36% - US$140m (AU$216m) (assuming 35% goes to Mali royalties and taxes)
- Gov @20%, LLL @32% - US$192m (AU$296m) (no taxes and royalties to Mali in initial years)
- Gov @35%, LLL @26% - US$156m (AU$240m) (no taxes and royalties to Mali in initial years)
So even at current depressed prices of around $1000, LLL Earnings per share (EPS) should be around 10c in 2024 (PE multiple of 5x) and around 20c in 2026 (PE multiple of 2.5x).
Please let me know if I am missing anything
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