I had anticipated that we would likely have a shortfall of funds to start the actual commissioning given the tax implications, but $65m USD, that equates to $144m USD across the JV as a possible buffer.
I am not buying that, there has to be something else at play here.
Selling a 5% stake in an asset that could be worth 5x that in 2 years is not a good move. Have we been backed into a corner again?
Trouble is as we are no longer equal partners we could actually be forced into full production when really we should actually be looking at a commissioning process based around pricing. Extremely slow in 2024 if pricing is an issue and just test the infrastructure. That would be no bad thing IMO.
Trouble is Ganfeng will want as much product from Goulamina as possible. They have two cost / profit centres rather than 1 with this project. Mali / China. I don't think they will give a stuff on the price the JV is getting.
Given we are now in the 5th Month of the current suspension and the quarterly notes that we are still waiting on some critical permits, I am thinking they have decided they need to take the lead on the FFX issue otherwise this is going to be death of a thousand cuts for Leo.
I did not invest in a project to own as little as 26% in a worst case scenario. I was ok with equal highest stake of 40% (40/40/20) but we are now likely looking at somewhere between 32% and 26%.
I hope that this news coming out is not correct but there is usually no smoke without fire. A positive would be to lance the FFX issue once and for all.
IMO
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