To add to this discussion re demand expectations, I decided to...

To add to this discussion re demand expectations, I decided to do a little table and graph to show what people are discussing. I agree that while actual demand (volume) is increasing, there is a difference between actual (realised) growth and projected/forecast demand. The table and graph illustrate my point.

	Forecast (Expected Demand)	Realised (Actual demand)	YoY Forecast Growth	% YoY Forecast Growth	YoY Realised Growth	% YoY Realised Growth	Diff Between Forecast and Realised Growth	% Diff Between Forecast and Realised Growth
1	100	100					0	0.0%
2	110	109	10	10%	9	9%	-1	-0.9%
3	123	121	13	12%	12	11%	-2	-1.6%
4	143	133	20	16%	12	10%	-10	-7.0%
5	170	150	27	19%	17	13%	-20	-11.8%
6	200	172	30	18%	22	15%	-28	-14.0%
7	230	195	30	15%	23	13%	-35	-15.2%
8	260	217	30	13%	22	11%	-43	-16.5%
9	285	236	25	10%	19	9%	-49	-17.2%
10	308	252	23	8%	16	7%	-56	-18.2%
11	325	265	17	6%	13	5%	-60	-18.5%
12	340	272	15	5%	7	3%	-68	-20.0%
13	355	278	15	4%	6	2%	-77	-21.7%

The above shows that while there may be YoY increases in absolute terms, there may be a widening gap between actual demand and forecast demand. In the real world this doesn't usually happen year on year for too long because the feedback mechanisms provide suppliers the necessary information pretty quickly these days. You could look at the above illustration as a month on month or quarter on quarter scenario.

Note that this is very stylised and there are many variation to the above that might also be applicable.

IMO DYOR