LYC 1.39% $6.56 lynas rare earths limited

You are so quick with words but present no data. Lets take a...

  1. 7,262 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 492
    You are so quick with words but present no data. Lets take a look

    - Lynas are a low cost producer; they're still making money at cabbage RE prices while the Chinese have struggled.

    Making money Yes they are but how much even in H2 2023 they only made AU$160 divide by 933 M shares is 17 cents EPS Is that acceptable?
    Cabbage price prices. Remember how AL told us every Q CC that there was a 90 day delay book to bill delay so next Q would be better. So lets look at some NdPrO price averages for Q. Q4 2023 477 RMB Kg WV, Q1 2024 487 RMB. Q2 489 RMB, now Q3 dropped dramatically to 381RMB. So when you look at prices we have not even seen the recent price drops impact on earnings. yes MP is facing same problem that is why I do not own either and only trading activity in last 18 months has been MP puts.

    - Lynas have well established cracking & separation systems actually working using Mt Weld material; HRE separation still needs to be proven. MP have s far produced a few dozen tons.
    Yes you are correct. But you are missing a few critical points MP has made every schedule date within one Q. Lynas has only produce Next rates one Q AL told up they were producing NEXT rates for a month in 2019. Texas was suppose to be open fall of 2022 now it is some time in 2027. Even ground breaking slips 3 months every Q and still has not happened. KAL slipped 9 months and still has not reached June 2023 goals Lamp upgrades were late and if MAL gov had not extended deadlines the Lamp would have been closed 1 Jully. So yes you are correct about volume but look a little more carefully at who does what they say. Look back to when NC said Lamp would be at name plate, When AL said they would be at NEXT rates and then look at my third chart. In 2019 We were told Lynas had a plan to customize CE for their customers and this would boost the profit from there most abundant REE. What happened? Have you heard anything else. in last 4 years?

    - A huge factor in the failure of Molycorp was the need to transport bulk water onsite and I haven't yet seen a solution to that problem.
    Y
    ou are correct about this. do you know why this happened? They had a process that recovered all the water and most of the solvents. It worked except the input filters clogged and could not be cleaned by backwashing as planed. This raised costs exponentially not only bringing in water but disposing of waste in LA because they could not do it on site. They had a demonstrated plan to fix this, the money ran out. By volume and weight C&L has the most weight and volume of waste products. MP has been shipping high purity mixed REE alkaline to China for several years. This is very similar to what KAL will ship to lamp. The water and reagent recovery is working fine. I know many on this board think it is contrate like Mt W. ships to lamp they should investigate what they think.


    - Anyone who looks at the comparative performance of Lynas and MP and believes Lynas should start emulating MP's processes is an ignorant idiot.

    That make me an idiot. in your eyes. You are welcome to your opinion. I see much good and bad in both companies For examples, when i look at margins on Metal and magnets I think MP should concentrate more on Oxides and less on metal and magnets. Lynas never does what they say and does not seem to be aware of problems till right before things are due. Here are some charts all from verifiable data (SMM Lynas Q and AR reports) JMO you will drop your hold opinion to sell if you realy understand all that they say.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6121/6121600-d4d358c50ff959597bc890d79e88a2fd.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6121/6121602-a8813be3c08db46096dabf6898278e16.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6121/6121603-9921ec020531dab7e1b2a83c3e8d1cb5.jpg


 
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