Not discounting much of that, but I'm not going to speculate. SP...

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ausheds

19,587 Posts.

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27/06/17

10:08

Post #: 25508082
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Originally posted by TinyBoat ↑

My best guess is that many have already done OK and will take their profits at these prices and that the patient long termers will need to patient for a while yet.

It really depends on who the MtK bond holders are and their motivation.

If they are just hedge fund bottom feeders, don't expect 17c any time soon. Their nature is to get in and out as soon as they can secure their profit. There will be 370M shares available to satisfy demand at 10c or so and they will start converting bonds if SP moves much above that.

If they are front for Japan Inc (or someone else) who wants to take over LYC for a steal, expect some fireworks soon. Not the highest probability scenario to my thinking. I think they probably would have moved before now.

If they are mainly a front for Japan Inc mates asked to kick in some money to help guarantee non China supply of NdPr, along with a few bottom feeders in the 30% reportedly not owned by Japan Inc mates (my favoured scenario), don't expect 17c any time soon. Now is time to reward them. There will be plenty of shares available to satisfy demand at 10c or so as the bottom feeders exit and Japan Inc. mates take some profits, although the latter will probably hold a fair proportion back convert in a way that ultimately maximises the SP in the medium term.

That doesn't take into account the motivation, size and plans of whoever was so successfully holding the SP down. They are probably still behind a fair chunk of the demand at the moment, although I agree with Aus that some insto's are probably now starting to take more interest. Plenty of uncertainly there for conspiracy theorists to work with.

Whatever, volume at 10c is a very good thing for the medium and long term holders to consolidate the price at this level for a wile and provide for some confidence for more insto's to come in! Given the fundamental shift in macros, the 1 to 2 year outlook appears pretty good!

All just my own speculation thrown out there to see what others think.

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Not discounting much of that, but I'm not going to speculate.

SP is very simply a function of earnings over 7Bn shares, or perhaps 700M with a 10:1 consolidation.

Insto's ARE nibbling, and many keen to take a line off mkt, as clearly demonstrated.

With RE price appreciation just starting to feed multiple points of Lynas leverage there will be a point of critical mass where value becomes far more apparent.

Patience is the operative word, today is my 7th anniversary.

LYC Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $7.69		Change 0.080(1.05%)		Mkt cap ! $7.253B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$7.67	$7.78	$7.63	$9.690M	1.258M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	46595	$7.68

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$7.69	45838	3

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	56700	7.680
6	29279	7.670
1	10000	7.640
2	6868	7.630
1	878	7.620

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.690	45838	3
7.700	771	2
7.710	387	1
7.720	388	1
7.730	778	2

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