Just watched the meeting and I must admit Amanda sounds more positive than ever. I think she is a bit frustrated with the low RE prices but who isn’t. What I continued to see from Amanda is a quiet confidence and a pretty good handle on the future…
As many of us know the share price is directly proportional to the price of Nd/Pr and I got the sense from Amanda that the price of Nd/Pr is on the way up. “…(market seeking) a continuous, market dynamic improvement.” Also she mention their (Lynas management) posture on the changing market price, they are drinking Australian Bubbly but not champagne, yet…
The US program has run into some issues, the site is located near a Dow Chemical facility and Dow has a few issues before ground can be broken. Amanda didn’t provide any more color and didn’t provide a new ground breaking date I’m sure because she doesn’t want over promise but delays are inevitable…
It sounds like the commissioning of the entire system (Mt. Weld, Kalgoorlie, and Malaysia) is running well, Amanda was very proud when she spent a good deal of time on Mt. Weld. One stat she revealed was the exceptional mine life that continues to expand. Currently 35 years @ current production (7.2k tpa) and 20 years @ projected production (12 tpa)…
Interesting note was that a blanket of heavy RE’s is spread across the mining site and Lynas is just beginning to understand the mineralization. Amanda indicated that it is enough to make Lynas Malaysia both a heavy and light RE separator…
I was also interested to see Pol (V.P of downstream) jump in on a question. As Aus or RVR can tell you he can be difficult to understand, at least until my bottle of wine makes it to the table. Pol is the public face of Lynas and understands the rare earth better than anyone I have encountered. The world market is subject to many forces including the different cultures that drive international trade and Pol negotiates this territory with ease...
An intangible, I have followed Lynas many years and for the most part the senior staff is unchanged. The senior staff works well together and they seem to having a good time with Lynas. The fact that there has been little turnover illustrates the cohesive nature of management and the long term commitment they have for the company…
Kalgoorlie is another bright spot and while Amanda didn’t discuss much she held it up as a shining example of what can be accomplished. She talked about the past year and noted that due to the market slowdown Lynas set the foundation for a stronger market going forward.
Amanda has always had the philosophy of retaining IP (intellectual property) and experience. Instead she keeps everyone busy streamlining systems and making the process more efficient. Most projects are in house and the engineers are always working of new technology…
Bottom line, Amanda has the ship ready to sail and as soon as the winds pick up it will be off to the races. It is impressive that Lynas is still profitable in the current market and it is clear that Lynas has strong staying power. While it may be some time before the Nd/Pr price to increase as some have suggested, I like to take my cue’s from the leadership at Lynas…
I am probably as excited as anyone about the recent share price and if my read (especially from Pol and Amanda) is correct, the price of Nd/Pr is heading up. It is going to be awesome to see things whirling at 12 tpa, it won’t take time to spool things up further after the latest down period. In any event we might have to get rid of the Bubbly and pop the cork on a good bottle of Dom Perignon… JMHO…
LYC Price at posting:
$7.06 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)