this reply is not to birchcorp but others who might have read...

Jay you are correct. It is not a question of if a company may have a very good future 2 or 3 years out. It is a question of which company has the beter odds of returning good performance for the next year. I was lucky I bought NVDA at end of Covid. Not because I saw there role in AI but because I saw a return of auto sector and High end gaming PC's I sold just under $700. It is almost double that now. Its multiples were becoming crazy then and are worse now. For All I know AI could run for several more years. Its multiples are crazier now than DOT COM in very late 90's When it collapses It could be worse than dot com in 2000 or banks 2008. In both companies that made it fell 90% and many did not make it.

For the first time ever I bought bounds with some of my surplus Very liquid have returned over 5 % and if interest rates drop, which I think they will, could have a 20~ 30 % capital gain. Would never have done it because I have always hated bounds. My full service broker realy pushed and when I investigated, in spite of my misgivings, slowly started to try it. Now about 20% of my holdings. JMO that is more than enough for this sector. Bounds are Corp. bounds with Bbb ratings or Beter I do look at finances of company before buying. Not all bounds with the same rating are equal. My broker did a good job of teaching me. In late 2022 i moved to mining companies Like BHP RIO and FCX. BHP and RiO went crazy and had about a 50% gain in 6 months and I did not like multiples so i sold. Still holding FCX

There are always alternatives it is a big market. To find them you have to look for companies with a good chance of going up. Not for somone to tell you about a large winner on the sly.

If you read any investment books you would know that most investors do a good job of selecting and buying stocks. Where they have tremendous trouble is knowing when to get out. I think i t has been nearly 20 years since I missed getting out. i will readily admit that some stocks I got out long before top. Thats ok My annualized gain is much higher now.

In last 2 years Lynas is down about 45% even a bank savings account would have been Beter than that

this reply is not to birchcorp but others who might have read his post. The tarrifs he talks about will not take effect till 1/1/2026. JMO it will be a year from the time of tariffs till they cause any changes in Lynas earnings.

I will agree it will be a new error. the question is not if it is when. I only look out about 12 months. Lynas needs above a 750 RMB / KG WV price for NdPrO to make a profit that will support a $6.00 SP at a PE of 30. that is at the old expense rate which will go up with KAL and other projects coming on line. So price will be higher than what I said. I have to use the hard data I have not guess at future. He uses Adams to say prices are going up Adams has been around for over a dozen years. They make their money by selling rights for corps to use there data. They are always high and anybody with experience knows this. He post a chart about typical cycles from either A book or AI but does not give any dates where he thinks REE is in this.
My opinion is REE prices are at bottom unlikely to go lower. I doubt in the next year they will go above.500RMB WV. I publish in June 2022 a range for NdPrO of 450 to 550 RMB WV it never went above that for a year Went below often. June of 2024 I rest range to 400 - 500. I thought by now we would go back above 400 and haven't.

Believe who you want its your money. REE prices are one of the most important items in determining LYC SP. Here is just one of the things I use to try and predict future prices. It is data that I recorded. I have learned if you are not involved in the analysis it is hard to make good decisions.