There is lots of talk about Decoupling above. Some answers are in total disagreement. I read a lot off this and I think there is no common definition of what is meant by decoupling.
If means decoupling of price I do not think it will ever happen. after WW I The EU Manufactuing was in trouble. . the US had a surplus because they were the main supplier for the war. As EU got back on their feet they started to implement Tariffs to protect themselves from the monster US. The US said unfair and responded with their own tariffs. Took a few years but this and other things lead to the great depression. Now it is one big world market and isolations or de-coupling is impossible on price. Even north Korea with its total isolation policy can not do it.
to de couple from yourself
Another type of decoupling is dependency on another country for product. This is very possible you just have to do it yourself. If we look at Lynas and MCP/MP over last dozen years bringing new Production on line it s hard, even with experience. China is a power house. They have grown their market share of REE as well as down stream products Like motors and Cars over the last 10 years. Lynas was about 14% of REEO market just 6 or 7 years ago they are about 8% to day. If you take out sales to China of concentrate oxide MP is not even a player yet. If we look at last dozen years and what has happened to Lynas and MCP/ MP My guess is it will take a dozen years to reduce China to even a 70% market share.
JMO it will take 4 to 7 decades to reduce them below 50%. This could happen a lot faster but it would take a major event to change rate if decline. Tere are probably many possibilities but the only realistic ones i see right now are the total collapse of China's internal economic and social structure. A major war between the countries around China including US and most of EU.
Neither will be a good thing.
Decoupling is a good thing to consider but if you do not define what it is and when you expect things to happen it is just hot air. It seldom happens like what we think or want.
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