Yes, that’s the logic I have applied as well. The interesting...

Yes, that’s the logic I have applied as well.

The interesting part about Japan as the key relationship for LYC, is that LYC is a the leading ex-China supply, and with limited and as per @suitsurfer modeling the deficit of ex-China supply being 70%. This makes LYC very important to the ex-China supply path.

There is a genuine not just price decouple, but supply decouple that is on the horizon. It’s a mandate for national security that the west must diverge. That’s also, not debatable, but an obvious path given the geopolitics we currently find over selves and also the covid related lessons.

So, where I see upside for LYC, is although a supplier to Japan, they will have a 70% supply deficit knocking at their door. So, with that in mind, Japan either pays a reasonable value for their product, an notable premium above and beyond the spot price, or LYC over time moves on to another customer in Europe or the US. This forms the price decouple.

Although, as you have seen, several people are attempting to take this down to a dirty level, this is a genuine discussion point, it needs to be discussed. As LYC stands to benefit in a significant way.

I been fortunate enough to review the modeling of @suitsurfer, so I am very comfortable with the inputs, to see the supply will blow peoples minds. So, the next question is how quickly this will filter through.

FYI: I do understand several Western rare earth players are also modeling this now. In the coming months, it will be interesting to see the outcome.

Just an important point; your price first point.

It was raised to me in industry, that with regard to price. A $50k car has only circa $50 of magnet. So, to ensure the car gets out of the port in western countries, there is a genuine price elasticity. The Demand for NdPrO has room to increase the price by up to x4. Ie in recent times cars have been left in US docks due to being supplied with Chinese parts and the association with human rights/slave labour issues. Going forward large OEM’s cannot afford this headache. So, price first idea, is somewhat moving down that list you have above to secure ESG compliant product.

LYC, in this present time, is in a strong position to capture all this upside. It’s my understanding that the leaders of all rare earth companies on the west, are planning how to strategically capture the benefits of the current geopolitical climate. There is no chance, LYC are not considering this in the background - as we write today.