Lynas would and should not be a non-Chinese monopoly on REE...

Lynas would and should not be a non-Chinese monopoly on REE oxide indefinitely. That is for sure. I would give them another 3-4 years of lead-way before there will be sizeable new suppliers. Therefore, it is a question of when, not If.

I am surprised the ILU board has proved FID in this given they have not given the FID in Wimmera. I suppose the Australian government's debt provision is key to reduce the financial risk. Wimmera is key because relying solely on the Eneabba waste will not be sufficient for a processing plant that has at least 15-20 years of plant life. Wimmera obtaining FID is also NOT a given because I am aware there is a very challenging technical issue that ILU will need to resolve before it can obtain environmental approval. In addition, Wimmera located in the state of Victoria makes the EIS approval process even more challenging given the state currently has ZERO approved and operating mineral sands project.

It is interesting to see ILU is prepared to accept third party ore for processing - that in itself has challenges, especially for a new comer. Again, it will be interesting to see ILU can build this on-time and on-budget. My bet is it will suffer from either cost blow-out and/or post ramp-up issues. ILU obtaining IP in how to build and operate REE processing plant is not easy and typically it is a process of "trial and costly error". The IP of building and more importantly, running the REE processing is why there has been so limited new REE oxide processing plant being built outside of China. That is how I understood it listening and talking to independent industry participants over the years.

In the next 12-24 months, LYC's position as a key non-chinese REE oxide supplier is assured - LYC management obviously needs to demonstrate its ability to build the Kalgoorlie facility on time and on budget despite the market's scepticism. If i had to choose one between LYC and ILU, I know who is the safer bet to get it right.