"But what if you want to make magnets completely outside China?"Simple truth is non China resources cannot supply even 15% of the demand from countries out side of China. So the chance of the world abandoning Chinas output in the next decade or maybe even 2 is Nil. If you are buying most of your requirements from a country, even if you hate doing it, then it comes down to price. Price will be about 80 % of the decision. China is firmly in control of price. The other 20% is quality and patriotism. Availability will be controlling factor for at least a decade. I am buying and selling based on next 6 to 12 months earnings. So your argument does not influence me at all. It probably influences others, Should it. Are these people who are still remembering 1000RMB NdPR prices and making decisions on that. Who knows maybe China attacks Tawain and things get out of control and go nuclear. Then everything would change. i will keep My Focuses short 6 ~ 12 months. not because I have any fear of war it is just things are changing to fast to predict. TWO years ago NdPr was over 1000 RMB today Under 400 RMB how can any planning applied to the 1000 RMB pricing be relevant to day at 400 RMB? I will admit there are a few on this board who try hard.
Read a few books on investing a Short view always works better. I hope every time I buy something I will keep it for many years and some I actually have. I reevaluate holding at least once a year. in volatile markets, like REE, it is more like monthly
Sometimes it is all how you think about the topic. Ask me the two following questions and the answers are quite different.
Based on current trends do you think you will buy Lynas in next 18 months? Absolutely not.
Do you think anything could change and cause you to buy in next 6 months. Again answer is absolutly .but with a yes.
I make decisions based on what is happening but stay aware of just how fast things can change.
LYC Price at posting:
$6.67 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)