HDR hardman resources limited

+ where is the oil price going? +

  1. 22,691 Posts.
    On 14 Nov 2004, I predicted a price of $45 medium term, when the dollar was 84 cents:

    http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=2&tid=144599#80774

    That was again mentioned on 27 Dec by stating $45 +/-$5

    (BW suggested it should be $25-$30 and Gold $300. We haven't heard from him for a while).

    Reasons were given why the price should stay high.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The medium term is now and the price is $51 with the USD at 86 cents.
    The geo-political scene has drastically changed with China, India, Iran and Venezuela being some of the key players.

    The battle for resources started some time ago and the US can't seem to get its way with Venezuela.

    There has been much talk about a much higher consumption to come while the US is in vain trying to get the oil price down.

    Items such as the manipulation of the oil price, the massive strategic reserve China is building now, the Middle East problems and overall supply is making the trade nervous. Risks have increased since Nov 2004.

    It is clear that now the summer is starting shortly, the pricing pressure will be on.

    I do believe that sometime in July we could expect $65 +/_$5 in todays USD=86.

    I suppose, gas ought to benefit as well.


    Gerry
 
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