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Senseightynine

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21/03/19

12:06

Post #: 37837285
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Originally posted by 4profit: ↑

English version of the recent GOMspace research report.

https://research.danskebank.com/research/#/Research/articlepreview/7d766c24-b23a-4c7c-ba47-73ef2a7807e7/EN

Extracts:

Sky Space and Global secured financing. SAS announced recently that it had securedAUD15m funding, which it expects to suffice until it is revenue generating in late 2019. Bythen, it should be easier to secure the next batch of funding and we see this as very positivefor GomSpace. We do not include the full order in our estimates, and GomSpace guidanceexcludes this order in order to be conservative.
We now include a 10% probability that GomSpacewill deliver to SAS on the original deal value in 2019, representing some SEK28m of our salesestimates towards the end of 2019 and SEK55m in 2020.
Key customer Sky and Space Global (SAS), an Australia-based listed emerging satelliteoperator, has recently secured AUD15m (SEK100m) in funding. SAS is the first cutomer to orderlarge quantities from GomSpace and the original plan was that production for SAS should rampup in late 2018 with high volumes in 2019. Work related to SAS was halted in H2 18 and by end2018 GomSpace had outstanding receivables amounting to SEK33m. The project remains onhold, awaiting further payments. It is hard to predict how much GomSpace would deliver to SASin the near term if the order is resumed. For now, GomSpace guidance excludes the SAS order.The original contract, mid point, was for EUR60m of sales and we include probability-weightedsales related to the contract in our estimates (see chart above) , i.e. we do not include the fullorder value. Having said that, SAS have signed customers and expects to be revenue generativefrom Q4 19, and even if this is delayed, the current funds are probably sufficient to launch the first batch of satellites. With a smaller, operational, constellation which generates cash webelieve it will be easier to secure the next batch of funding. Consequently, the fact that SAS hasnow secured AUD15m in funding is very important for GomSpace not only from a P&Lperspective, but also as a commercial reference case.
Valuation. We still see the significant long-term potential following the uncertainty regarding the Sky Spaceand Global order, even though risk increases in the short term, illustrated by the currentmismatch of capacity and activity level.

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only 10% probability of SAS achieving their 2019 goals

yikes, even the key supplier doesn't have much faith in SAS
SAS Price at posting: 2.8¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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News & Media, page-2106

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