I too am surprised that Crusader is practically trading at what it was prior to the full mining license announcement. Although the full license was "imminent" we'd seen delays before, so i am unconvinced that Crusader getting the mining license was priced in prior to the announcement, especially given the unpredictability of mining licenses in Brazil.
So what is holding the stock back?
- Sentiment towards anything Emerging Markets is getting sold off at the moment, yes CAS is listed in Australia but the reality is they have two projects in Brazil.
- They are cash flow positive, however haven't really grown their cash position, making it unclear how/when stage two will go forward.
In saying this, I've held Crusader for a year and my opinion is that there are plenty of looming catalysts for a re-rating. The largest of which in the near term, would be confirmation of funding for stage 2 which will see recoveries double and a swifter process of getting iron out of the ground and sold (as opposed to piled up in the mine).
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