In broad terms you're right, although it's more decline than they flagged in the HY preso (hence market reaction - were I a daytrader I'd have put my money where my mouth was on the VRT thread, and sold MVF in the run up to $1.28 last week).
Management seems cautiously optimistic with their forecast for NPAT growth for the next full year, and reading between the lines they may be right. This year's growth in costs ought to be fairly easy to arrest or even reverse, with the ructions in Victoria now settled.
The apparent bright spots are the growth in Malaysia and South Australia (and Qld holding steady), although these were clearly not enough to make up for the lost market share in Victoria and NSW.
In six months' time we'll find out whether the ship has been steadied or is still on the way down.
MVF Price at posting:
$1.15 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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