Although Nextstellis is very important for the growth and future...

Although Nextstellis is very important for the growth and future profit of Mayne Pharma, this company is no longer a "one-trick pony". It is only 35% of the intangible valuation of Branded Products and this half we're likely to report about $200M in revenue with Nextstellis contributing about $20-$25M (about 10-12%) and probably still with a zero contribution to profit.

The issue I have wrestled with this product is the very high expectations set by SR in 2019 (peak sales to exceed US$200M/year in 3 to 4 years from launch), well we're 2.5 years after launch and probably have only captured about A$55M total and this year we may do about A$60M for FY24, so we're way off those expectations. However when I compare this performance with the launch of Drovelis (also 2.5 yrs ago, Nextstellis name in Europe and Russia) a similar market size to US (by Gedeon Richter) the performance is almost identical.

Similar stories can be found with other innovative contraceptive products such as Annovera, Twirla, Phexxi and a few others, so maybe this is the pace that we have to accept. We have passed the threshold of profitabilty for this product and I have revised my own expectations for growth and am happy to see continued growth in both cycles and NSP.
I thought this bar chart below produced during the October 2023 update, tells the story of Nextstellis so far. When the last two quarters are compared, there was barely a 10% growth in cycles but revenue jumped from A$5.9M to A$10M. So, I'll be looking for both cycle growth and NSP growth next week plus positive commentary regarding ACA.