I am sure that forecast plays nicely into its bad debt...

I am sure that forecast plays nicely into its bad debt provisioning to be announced on 5 May.

NAB has had a solid run up in April ahead of a well flagged $2.5 billion share buyback announcement to commence after its earnings announcement that has helped it back to 11% YTD gains. I'd be looking with some trepidation at the 5 May results and whether the business can justify this valuation.

NAB's poor debt provisioning was shown up very badly in 2020 and it had to issue (sell) shares at $14.15 requiring over $3 billion to shore up its balance sheet. Barely two years later, NAB is running down its balance sheet again by following up with a second $2.5 billion share buyback, at more than double the share issue price! Just when interest rates are going up worldwide and the entire global debt situation is looking shadier than a 2007 US mortgage broker.

As a long term shareholder I'd expect a little better fiduciary management from a bank in the space of two years. Sell low, buy high, the CFO cried, works everytime (shake of head for the ignorance of balance sheet degredation amongst investors). You could do a lot worse than simply buying shares when NAB issues them in times of need, and recklessly buys them back at double the price two years later as an investor.

There are larger arguments here of moral hazard. The RBA jumped in and held the banks up with a zero interest financiing facility during COVID. Whilst more informed investors will point to high CET ratios, for the banks to be buying back shares, this early from essentially a Central Bank bailout, seems a bit rude.