so,
On a level of probability, I think the licence its about 85% back on APRA's desk. The Australian banking landscape is a hard nut to crack. Many have tried and failed. Who has the funds right now to invest in a digital bank in a high inflation high interest environment to compete with established banks? They are struggling to raise money for the novatti entity, which is established, so investors coughing up cash right now is less likely. When I spoke to Peter last year, his comment was "we cannot rule out giving back the licence", that does not fill me with confidence. I think they have torn off the Band-Aid on this and the Cash flow positive fantasy by mid 24 in this report for a vague chance of not cratering the share price.
As far as the IBOA, they have no customers, have launched no products, and have no deposits. That will weigh heavily on APRA's decision to revoke the licence.
Like saying they are close to a funding deal or its in its end stages is Imo just like a Memorandum of Understanding. We agree to discuss the potential of a deal with no deal on the table, so its a pipe dream. I've read reports from other companies saying they are close to a deal, only to string out holders for another 12 months or so, with no deal in sight. Based on the commentary I reckon they are softening the blow of the Price sensitive announcement they will make when APRA revoke the licence.
At best I admire them for coming out now and saying they are not going to be cash flow positive by mid 24, rather than hitting SH's with it on the day. So if that is a KPI, they failed, dismally more than once, as the statement has been made previously, the date has come and passed.
With the licence returned, what will happen to Paycheck Peter? maybe they can get him to clean the offices or wheel a cart around with tea and bikkies, or he could be the restroom attendant. I'm sure there will be a made-up position for Ol peter with a surprising coincidental salary package of about 750k!
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