Projecting Novatti's Q4 FY24. Comments welcome. Cheers Anton....

Projecting Novatti's Q4 FY24. Comments welcome. Cheers Anton. PS. DYOR.

**Q3 FY24 Revenue**: $12.4 million (record high, +16% QoQ)

Given the consistent growth in revenue over the past three quarters and the strategic initiatives in place, let's project a continued growth rate. Assuming a similar 16% growth rate for Q4 FY24:

Expenses

**Q3 FY24 Expenses Breakdown**:

- Total Q3 FY24 Expenses: $7.1 million

**Additional Cost Reduction**:

- $4 million annual cost reduction program, effective from Q4 FY24

- Quarterly impact of cost reduction:

\[ \text{Quarterly Impact of Cost Reduction} = \frac{4 \, \text{million}}{4} = 1 \, \text{million} \]

**Adjusted Expenses for Q4 FY24**:

\[ \text{Projected Total Expenses for Q4 FY24} = 7.1 \, \text{million} - 1 \, \text{million} = 6.1 \, \text{million} \]

Gross Profit Margin Calculation

To calculate the gross profit margin, we need to determine the cost of goods sold (COGS). Using the data provided:

- **Receipts from customers (Q3 FY24)**: $23.506 million (for the first 9 months)

- **Product manufacturing and operating costs**: $20.612 million (for the first 9 months)

Assuming the same growth rate for COGS as revenue (16% increase QoQ):

- Q3 COGS: $20.612 million / 9 months = $2.29 million per month

- Total Q3 COGS: $2.29 million \times 3 months = $6.87 million

Now, to calculate Q4 COGS:

- Assuming a similar growth rate:

\[ \text{Q4 COGS} = 6.87 \, \text{million} \times 1.16 = 7.9692 \, \text{million} \]

Gross Profit for Q4 FY24

\[ \text{Gross Profit for Q4 FY24} = \text{Projected Revenue} - \text{Q4 COGS} \]

\[ \text{Gross Profit for Q4 FY24} = 14.384 \, \text{million} - 7.9692 \, \text{million} = 6.4148 \, \text{million} \]

Net Position

Using the projected gross profit and adjusted expenses, we can estimate the net position for Q4 FY24:

\[ \text{Estimated Net Surplus for Q4 FY24} = \text{Gross Profit} - \text{Projected Expenses} \]

\[ \text{Estimated Net Surplus for Q4 FY24} = 6.4148 \, \text{million} - 6.1 \, \text{million} = 0.3148 \, \text{million} \]

Summary

Based on the projections:

- **Projected Revenue for Q4 FY24**: $14.384 million

- **Gross Profit for Q4 FY24**: $6.4148 million

- **Projected Expenses for Q4 FY24**: $6.1 million

- **Estimated Net Surplus for Q4 FY24**: $0.3148 million

These projections suggest that Novatti could achieve a modest net surplus in Q4 FY24, reflecting the impact of increased revenue and substantial cost reductions from the implemented cost-saving measures.

Just my workings with a little chatgpt help. Show me your workings… and/or pull the above apart.

For more detailed financial data and official reports, you can refer to Novatti’s quarterly updates and announcements on their [website](https://www.novatti.com).