News: NVT Australia's Navitas under pressure as government threatens to cut contracts, page-9

Hypothetical Model

Organic CAGR: 10%
PE Movement: Flat
Dividend Yield: 5%
Annual Contract Losses: -5%
= 10% return on investment

What is interesting to me is that you can budget for a reasonable level of contract losses and still project a good investment return, and what will seperate views on NVT will be whether those 4 input figures have downside or upside.