Good summary but usd 80m for bile duct c looks very optimistic. Have done bit of digging to try to understand this indication bit more . So, About 8000 cases per year in US, all types of BDC. To qualify for the orphan device status by FDA it has to be a disease with incidence not more than 8000 per year, so OSL just made it. They’re targeting the “distal” variety of BDC, probably because it’s more similar anatomically to pancreatic cancer and they’re using their Panco data to support as “predicate” based on what I read in an earlier company announcement. I can’t find anything that says they have data in bile duct. About 40% of BDC are “distal”. So total potential market = 3000. Only a portion of those would be expected to be suitable for OSL device , lets say 50%, so brings it down to 1500. And then they’d have to find them, and US is a big country! I reckon they’ll do well to treat more than the low hundreds per year in US, so unless they sell device at price in 6 figures, 80M revenue isn’t on.
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