News: PLS UPDATE 1-Pilbara Minerals' Q2 revenue halves, focuses on cutting costs, page-20

I posted this on the LTR forum but will replicate here as well.

I looked at Wood Mackenzie's pricing assumptions in their LKE Feasibility Study (December 2023). It's absolutely amateur hour.

They have 2028 lithium pricing as being HALF of what it'll be in 2033 and beyond. That couldn't be more incorrect imo. I think that lithium pricing between 2025-2029 (particularly during 2026-2028) will be substantially higher than it will be in early 2033. Between now and 2033, that gives plenty of time for projects to come online (even the lower quality, higher opex smaller projects). Sure, the cost curve will increase significantly as these lower quality projects are developed, but I suspect there'll be enough supply to prevent ridiculously high prices. In 2026/2027 will that be the case? I can't say that.

Beyond some of the existing players expanding operations (e.g. PLS), and well established developers (e.g. LTR) commencing operations, who else is going to service the 30-40% annual growth in demand between now and 2029? Lepidolite or African-sourced DSO?..... China will have you believing this.

By 2033, Canada (including Patriot's Corvette project) may have a reasonable supply of lithium raw materials. By 2025/2026/2027/2028, I suspect they'll be producing very little.