QAN 0.80% $7.42 qantas airways limited

News: QAN UPDATE 1-Australia's Qantas celebrates subdued 100th birthday, looks to post-COVID future, page-32

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    Allow me to address the blaring errors in that post:

    1) Idle aircraft attract costs only when they are currently configured for operations, such as their B737 range. This means that they are being used for commercial operations, so attract the usual maintenance costs any aircraft costs. The less they fly, the further apart the mandatory B, C & D checks occur. The larger aircraft have been moved to the desert so have carerakers look over them while their engine covers are on and birds and trespassers are kept at bay. When you go on a long holiday, you disconnect the battery from your car and leave it in the yard / garage. A mechanic doesn't need to change the fluids and perform a tune-up every week while you're away. It's the same with idle-parked aircraft. They are simply not generating revenue, but they're not draining large amounts of cash.
    2) I've typed this so many times, QAN is not issuing cash refunds like most airlines, but credit vouchers to be used when wider operations resume. This will affect their load factors as some flights will have a number of voucher holders, but some will also be FF customers cashing in points.
    3) A global vaccination will commence as early as Jan 2021, about a year after the pandemic began, and this is no doubt factored into the share price. This endeavour will take (according to the WHO) as long as 2 years where as many as 30 million people are vaccinated each month initially, then more as more vials are manufactured.
    4) QAN reports it will be back to about 60% domestic capacity around Christmas, and yes that will drop off next year, but other divisions, like freight and the FF business, are doing very well.
    5) QAN is currently in a stronger position than many of its peers internationally, so will emerge ready to recommence international operations operating new routes previously non-existent.

    The worst is behind, which is evident in the resilient share price. Any overt pessimism is either ignorance of current circumstances or simply "cognitive dissonance."
 
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