News: QBE Qbe Insurance Group Seeks Trading Halt Pending Capital Raise, page-47

I agree that it will go above $20 but it might not be until around April 2025. Next week it should regain the ground that it lost today and be back above $17. The combined ratio of 93.5% is conservative given what the jettisoned parts of the US were running at. So I expect that they will have to come out with some revised guidance once they get closer to the year end but I am sure it will not be too much as they will probably put more into their reserves for a rainy day. The London market has softened significantly at the start of this year in terms of pricing so it will be interesting to see how they manage this. They referenced that the probability of adequacy increased but I didn't see the actual numbers stated. This will give us a sense of how "manufactured" the current result was in terms of what upside they stashed away in the current results