I agree with your comments Dr P. I have no real evidence to back up some of my observations and predictions, but I’ll put them out there for the heck of it.
Aside from the Capital sell down, I believe there was another sustained sell down following it, related to the SCPE issue. I suspect that the manoeuvrings undertaken by SCPE to achieve whatever it was they were attempting failed, resulting in the exit from the board of the two existing SCPE directors and the then fairly sustained sell down beyond the Capital final exit price. This seemed to abate mid last year. There was then a very quiet period where there was largely no interest.
I believe that resolution of the forestry issue in Indonesia will be a major catalyst. I believe that management have handled this as best they can, with extreme diligence, caution and adherence to thorough and correct process. This has been to the extreme frustration of shareholders and the “expense” of any insightful release of detailed information to the market. I believe this to be the correct course of action. Whatever is known or supposed is, if not commercial-in-confidence, sensitive enough to be adversely prejudicial to EWC if it were openly conveyed. I suspect that parties with some visibility of the progress of the forestry resolution internally within Indonesia have bought on market as progressively more internal hurdles were reached. These look to be only relatively small bundles, but I sensed there were little spikes every now and again that may have some correlation. There is always the static of other trades of course, but some just had that feel about them.
Then, in the last 2-3 months of CY20, there was a definite subtle and controlled accumulation. Things stabilised. Not enough to push the SP materially higher, but some accumulation none-the-less. Is it a coincidence that this coincided with BA stating at the AGM that the forestry resolution was near complete and at the highest level of government for sign off? Me thinks not – it was a big statement to make. Then, since the New Year, the bots have started again. They were absent for a while. There has also been the buy/sell side orders of 2000 or 2500 units being played off against each other. This only started late last year and has continued in to this year. A new broker/fund manager is loitering.
I sense that as soon as the forestry resolution is formally announced, that there will be a rapid and somewhat sustained accumulation, with commensurate increase in the SP. I have no predictions on what that may be. The forestry resolution unlocks all of the subsequent targets/milestones and signals the fact that the Indonesian assets are no longer stranded, returning them closer to fair value. Perhaps more importantly, it will telegraph that management actually do have some idea of what they’re doing and are capable of navigating treacherous and tricky conditions – and therefore progressing the Philippines as well. Whether management capitalise on this, via a raising or whatever, to then “fast track” the Sengkang LNG project remains to be seen. Whether Chandler continues beyond that, as a major holder, also remains to be seen, but one would have to assume he is in until 50c. Regardless, the forestry resolution being formalised must be very close now.
EWC Price at posting:
7.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
