- China economy contracted sharply in Q2
- Iron ore tumbles, mortgage boycott roils property sector
- U.S. dollar ascendant, near 20-year peak
Asian stocks fell to a two-year low on Friday and were heading for a weekly loss, while the dollar was set for its third week of gains after a fresh round of rate hikes globally deepened concern about the outlook for world economic growth.
Although wagers on a 100 basis point hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve later this month eased off a little when Fed officials hosed down that possibility, bond markets remain priced for steep hikes to slam the brakes on output.
China's economy is another big worry. It contracted sharply in the second quarter, data released on Friday showed, while investors were also rattled by homebuyers' threats to cease mortgage repayments.
MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS touched a two-year trough and was last down 0.6%. Property stocks in Hong Kong .HSMPI slumped 3% and mainland banks .CSI000951 fell 1%, though stimulus hopes kept the rest of the market from further losses.
"The underlying June numbers show a fairly good recovery," said Woei Chen Ho, an economist at UOB in Singapore.
"But in terms of the second half...it seems they have more issues that are emerging," she added, citing the property market as the biggest problem.
China's fragile outlook hit commodity prices, sending Dalian iron ore DCIOcv1 down 9.1% and Australia's mining index .AXMM to a nine-month low, weighed further by a warning from Rio Tinto (RIO) of labour shortages.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 was an outlier, rising 0.6% in thin trade before a long weekend. Uniqlo parent Fast Retailing 9983.T leapt 8% after raising its profit forecast, with its international earnings flattered by the tumbling yen.
Modest positive sentiment has also come from two Fed officials pouring cold water on talk of a 100 bp rate hike later in July, against a backdrop of steep hikes in Canada, New Zealand, South Korea and surprise tightening in Singapore and the Philippines.
Futures
0#FF: imply about a 30% chance of a 100 bp hike and see the benchmark U.S. interest rate reaching about 3.6% by March next year before being cut back to 3% by late 2023. FEDWATCHS&P 500 futures ESc1 rose 0.3% in Asia and European futures STXEc1 rose 1%.
KING DOLLAR U.S. retail sales data is the next closely watched data point on Friday.
Weakness will further worry investors who think this week's white-hot inflation figure and subsequent Thursday data showing a strong rise in producer prices point to an unleashing of steep rate rises on a softening economy.
Short-end U.S. Treasuries held firm in Asia, but the two-year yield US2YT=RR , at 3.1159%, is about 17 basis points higher than the benchmark 10-year yield US10YT=RR , an unusual inversion of the yield curve that often points to recession.
"That inversion, I think, has quite a long way to go because we haven't really properly priced in that recession yet," said ING economist Rob Carnell.
In currency markets the U.S. dollar is king. The euro EUR=EBS fell as low as $0.9952 overnight and has slid 1.5% for the week. It last steadied at $1.0022. The yen JPY=EBS is hurtling toward 140 per dollar, and last bought 139.02.
"Not only has the greenback been supported by an almost continual ratcheting higher of Fed hawkishness ... but the U.S. dollar is picking up support from safe-haven flows," said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank in London.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 held at $99.96 a barrel and gold XAU= sat at $1,708 an ounce, just above a one-year low overnight.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ World FX rates YTD http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVhGlobal asset performance http://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgn Asian stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> ((To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click onhttps://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on:
0#.INDEXA ))
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1700 | $116.94 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 300 | 116.300 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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116.990 | 1796 | 1 |
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117.300 | 1000 | 1 |
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