Thanks for that but I can't get the CMM number to replicate.Here...

Thanks for that but I can't get the CMM number to replicate.

Here are my calcs, I'll assume our assumptions are reasonably similar re. gold price (AUD $3050 spot). Financial data are drawn from the 2023 Annual Report and forecast production from the June Quarterly Report. Net Cash position is from the September Quarterly Report.

Enterprise Value:

A Market Cap $1,750M
B Cash $133M
C Debt $56M
D EV: A-B+C= $1,673M

Margin:

E Mid-point production guidance: 120,000 oz
F AISC mid-point guidance: $1,315/oz
G Spot Gold price: $3,050/oz

margin E*(G-F) = $208.2M

EV/Margin = 8.03

This number assumes NO hedging. CMM has a hedge book but announced they will only be delivering into spot over the forecast period. If you add hedging at 30% of production (as forecast when delivery resumes) the EV/Margin number re-calculates to about 9.3. Either way it puts CMM back in the pack if the other data are correct.

Just as a general comment, and you've alluded to this in your last line @zog , there are of course reasons why different producers trade at different valuations and a a spreadsheet won't identify qualitive factors, mine-lives, or a host of non-financial risks. The West African producers look extraordinarily cheap if you ignore political risks, Regis looks OK if you ignore the shortening mine life at Duketon, cheap if McPhillamies gets going in a timely and cost-effective way.

You can't underestimate the role of management in the value of a gold miner, They all sell the same product, brand provides no moat. The differential lies in the ability of each company's management to mine and efficiently, develop intelligently, and balance the inherent risk in it's activity. The rest comes down to a big dose of gold-price luck.