S32 0.33% $2.98 south32 limited

UBS: South32:4Q disappointing,but is it priced in? S32's Jun-Q...

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    UBS:

    South32:4Q disappointing,but is it priced in? S32's Jun-Q is soft vs expectations with Sierra Gorda &Worsley missing FY24 guidance, FY25 guidance below expectations, and S32announcing US$818m (pre-tax) impairments at Worsely & Cerro Matoso. On thebright side, a US$180m working capital reversal & the IMCsalesupport a net cash position & cash returns in FY25 with spot cashflow yield~7% over FY25/26. We update our forecasts for the new guidance, cutting our EPSis 9%-23%lower across FY24/26E and taking our Price Target down ~10% to A$3.80/sh. Wemaintain a Buy on S32 due to its commodity mix, restructuring potential(Samancor), and the balance of cash returns/ growth. Linkto S32 note

 
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