I think we may have seen the market bottom. Obviously I can't be...

I think we may have seen the market bottom. Obviously I can't be sure of that, but here's some reasoning:
1. Ask yourself where will the market (All Ords eg) be in say 3 or 4 years time. Discount that back at a good rate of return, take off a bit for safety, and compare it with the market today. I think today looks fair value.
2. It feels like we're at maximum bad news. Govts have been going heavy on lockdown to get everyone conscious of the situation. Next move should be the tweaks that get things moving a bit (need a 29-minute haircut?).
3. There is a slight downturn in Australia's WuFlu infection rate over the last couple of days, though you wouldn't ever find that out from the ABC.
4. Market moves over the last couple of days have been getting smaller, and that feels like it is settling down, The bottom may turn out V-shaped, but IMHO a wobbly creep upwards is more likely. Expect your nerves to be tested over coming weeks!

I've been trickling cash back into the market and got the last dollar in yesterday. Now I sit and wait to see if I got it right. I think I have stocked up with enough wine.