News: STO Australian gas supply crunch squeezes east coast LNG exporters, page-8

ashahriar, I'll share a bit of a long term sentiment guide rather than technical price targets. Its a little bit unconventional but works very well to determine if longer term structural momentum is on our side. In fact I use these interpretations to help me determine my own positioning.

There are a few interpretations that wont be immediately obvious but whose confluence several weeks ago convinced me to go long. Some of my interpretations suggest:

1. long term bull runs often start after the yearly high trailing line falls down toward the current price action (orange dashed line). This is not a hard and fast rule, but if the yearly high is far higher than the current price action, the price tends to base or if your lucky, rise to only stall at the yearly high mark (orange line) before falling away. The weight of probability that a valid trend is certainly building is when the yearly high and price intersect after a modest run but its important to gauge the actual price action as well.

2. After establishing an interpretation above, no longer term bull trend is valid without the Longer term Stochastic being above the 50 mark . That is not to say that every bar will be an up bar. It just means that the long term sentiment is intact above 50, and there's an ongoing expectation of higher prices. You can see the positioning of this stochastic at (2) and today at (4).


Analysis:
Theres a mean line (A-B) that has divided the last few months of price action. The current price is now testing this.
You can see that at (1) the short term stochastic peaked and there was no follow through on the longer term stochastic at (2). The price action was still some distance from the trailing yearly high, so there was a much higher expectation of price falling away. IT's often good to get this initial test done though as the next test is generally more successful.  

A similar Stochastic status is presented now at positions (3) and (4). Although we have a potential overbought short term stochastic at (3), the longer term one threatens to turn bullish as early as this week.

(I have placed ticks and crossses where this study can also whipsaw one's sentiment - this doesnt often happen to be honest, but I mention it to be complete).

It is only when the longer term turns bullish (above 50) do I give weight to the probability of a multi-month to multi-year bull run. Of course the sentiment may fade away like it did in December but I can only keep saying "im bullish until it crosses back below 50". So for now we are only about to turn bullish for the first time this week.

Because of the test of that A-B line, the price action being close to they yearly high, and the longer term stochastic turning bullish, my expectation is that the price should not do much more than temporarily stall here, but should make a swift move to $4.62. At the yearly high we may see some selling but IMO that would only be the start of the trend should it start to make a move higher.

It should be stressed that my analysis above is slow moving, weekly, and will include periods of down weeks and multiweek corrections etc. The interpretation is more a price's "intent" - the "spirit" of investor confidence than price targets. Thats said, we should test $5 in this run. Absorption of supply at this level would be a positive sign that a continued bull run would test the gap to $9. Here's Hoping!