News: STX UPDATE 1-Mineral Resources steers away from Warrego Energy buyout plan, page-14

Just thinking through the implications of MIN converting to STX.

On the downside (as Gimo and others have pointed out), it provides MIN with an easy 'beachhead' onto the STX registry. But once they get there, what are they going to be able to do?

I have been surprised by how hard STX have been willing to chase WGO, given they already have operatorship in WE and a blocking stake in WGO.
I can only presume the upside benefit of acquiring WGO's bankable 2P reserves in the near-term is worth it in terms of rapidly progressing STX's business plan (versus the more time-consuming option of proving up more 2P reserves in SE). Adding WGO's 2P reserves to STX's own bankable reserves may allow it to unlock finance needed to progress Haber and a gas plant in SE.

If so, (and like all parties in this context, STX is understandably playing is cards close to its chest), there is also a downside risk to MIN of converting. If Strike have already secured 30% of WGO via additional acceptances, and then acquire MIN's 19.9%, they would have effective control of WGO, allowing them to determine where WGO's 2P reserves end up. If this unlocks Haber and a gas plant in SE, MIN might end up with <20% stake in a suddenly much more expensive and far-more-difficult-to-takeover Strike. If MIN, doesn't convert, they have a 19.9% stake in a non-operated asset.

Meanwhile, Gina is also stuck with ~25% of non-operated asset.

This seems to suggest the following possibilities:
- MIN will convert and move early on STX
- MIN will sell to Gina are visa versa (with Gina maybe raising bid to 40 cents). Maybe one or the other can get to 50% this way.
- or if Ellison and Gina are happy to have minority stakes in STX and WGO, respectively, they might be talked around to going it together with STX in the South Erregulla on a JV gas and urea plant.

Overall, I've been surprised by how hamfisted the MIN and Reinhart efforts have been. They seemed to have successfully boosted the prices of both WGO and STX without actually achieving a meaningful strategic goal.