This is a data post really ... I'm struggling to make a firm conclusion.
That (accumulated) Short data is normally three days delayed whereas this daily data ... https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt is available at 11am the day after.
On 15/8/23 2m SXGAI's were issued with a 66c strike (exp 15/8/26)
More recently on the same day as recent drilling news ... 23/10/23 ... a further 1.5m SXGAJ's were issued with a $1.20 strike price (exp 23/10/26) Issue of options for the provision of consulting services to the Company.
The first 179k shorts are announced by 13/10/23 (meaning by 10/10/23), and the total increases to 307k shorts by 20/10/23 (meaning 17/10/23)
I haven't been in SXG long enough to fully understand the details yet.
But let's say (other than the 20c IPO) most options relate to financial/broking companies of some form.
So if I go back to the announcement on 22/11/22
In addition to the 27,586,207 shares to be issued as a result of the (58c) placement, Bell Potter Securities Limited
will be issued 3 million options with an exercise price of $0.87 (87 cents), expiring three years from their issue
date. The options will be issued in accordance with the Company’s placement capacity under ASX Listing
Rule 7.1. These are SXGOA's.
From the 2022 20c IPO (12/5/22) Baker Young and Pulse - joint lead managers.
6,500,000 Joint Lead Manager Options (15.5m 30c options total) are proposed to be issued to the Joint Lead Managers
(and/or their nominee(s)) on Completion, each Joint Lead Manager Option having an exercise
price of $0.30 and an expiry date of three years post Completion. The full terms of the Joint Lead
Manager Options are set out in Sections 12.4.
I expect we'll see more shorts as the issued broker options go further and further "in-the-money".
What brokers can do is shake the tree at any time. They have in-the-money options that act as the loan security so can instantaneously short against those ... then sell shares (with associated fees) to clients for accumulation knowing their income is positive on both counts ... keeping a lid on the price while accumulating overall via equity and fees.
Presumably Baker Young/Pulse have more leverage while the share price remains under the Bell Potter's 87c SXGOA's. But once the SP starts to run we'll have the original (6.5m) 30c broker options, 2.2m : 66c SXGIA's, 3m : 87c SXGOA's and recently 1.5m : $1.20 SXGIJ's.
Plus the other (non-broker) 9m balance of the original 20c IPO 30c options.
At least 13.2m broker related options between 30c and $1.20 strike price.
If I'm anywhere near right - As the news gets bigger and better (if the $1.20 options are significant!) watch the shorts being used to make brokers income on two fronts and retail shareholders (desk top warriors) miss out through tree shaking, like it appears happened last week.
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