I think the only news this week will be that we start hitting...

I think the only news this week will be that we start hitting new lows as the support level continues to drop.

This is somewhat a HotCopper experiment for me. To be upfront, I dont hold any stock and never have. I have been observing the psychology of investors over the last few years and trying to establish some markers or signs that will assist in establishing the optimum time to enter or exit a particular investment.

I guess TA subscribers will tell us that the charts tells us all we need to know, but I believe there are other factors one should look for to assist in building the complete picture.

To start with take a stock that has a fundamental business model based on either a new technology, a new way of doing something useful better and more cost efficiently. Step 2 is volume of eyes. Once you have at least 1,000 people each week reading that stocks HC thread or following it, you know you have the base ingredients to play ball.

Then add time.... With the first 2 ingredients mixed together, we usually see a strong Share price performance. People start viewing the stock as a life changing opportunity and often buy far too much of it. This action is vindicated by the continual price rise, often sucking the investor in for more stock at an even higher price.(We are always reading about averaging up...told its far better than averaging down, right?)

At this stage, many are calculating how many boats and houses they will have once the stock hits $1 multiplied by X amount of shares one owns.

And now comes the rub.

Delays, contracts or announcement to be made "imminently" fail to appear. The stock has already sucked in everyone who could/would buy.....and the inflextion point is breached.

The stock has always had its down rampers or baggers,tirelessly posting to help save investors from themselves....there is nothing new there.

But all of a sudden one of the faithful has turned. Almost like a parent turning on their own child, how could this be?

Then some of the other large holders who were so vocal with positive posts, have just ceased posting all together. Perhaps they are secretly buy more shares as someone is always happy to point out.

Then one by one, tick by tick we start the descent.....the death by 1,000 paper cuts.

Please note, I have no opinion about the Monash payment, and if and when it comes, ESI may well be on its way to that $1 level. Just interested in the psychology of investor behavior, and how to profit from it.

Best of luck to the believers. Its great to have something to believe in...I am one of you too.

But I sense this week we will see more of those that have been struck by reality press the escape button and exit the vehicle.

Kiril