News: TPM ACCC Sets May 9, 2019 As New Provisional Decision Date For TPG Telecom-Vodafone Australia..., page-27

Purely from an expected value point - if analysts are saying: merger happens - $10, not happen $5 - then we would expect a reasonable person to price TPM at $7.50 (assuming 50/50 chance)

I think there is much more than a 50/50 chance given the obvious commercial benefits for consumers as a whole with a 3rd player in the 5G space.

IMHO - DYOR but there seems to be a lot more upside potential than downside at the current price!

GLTAH