re penfolds. You realise they managed to replace the China...

re penfolds. You realise they managed to replace the China volumes elsewhere in an extremely short period of time. Company has a solid balance sheet too. So more so when China tariffs go, they’ll rebuild the business to some degree. Sure I’m not expecting pre tariff, but they don’t need to do that, nor have luxury volume in penfolds to do so. It’s sold elsewhere now.

The market hasn’t priced anything in re China, it’s just spat the dummy at its recent acquisition which I get to a degree. However it’s worth noting just how much and how easily TWE raised at $10.80 and over. It’s been sold down on little volume comparably. Both you and I indicated a lot of risk here which is true, however the share price has the potential to double through a successful Chinese rebuild of penfolds or even other luxury wines plus the US luxury focus. TWE is circa 10-11% of USA luxury now. Again, risk, but big upside.

I also wouldn’t compare this to accolade who was a highly leveraged mid to low market assortment of brands owned by a PE firm. PE firm is the last sort of owner you want in this sector.

lastly, don’t bet the house on this. It isn’t a blue chip. My view anyway.