The key is the 40-70pct por on second half earnings. You could take a punt that it will be midrange say 55pct of earnings at same % reduction as first half on previous years second half earnings.
That would be a good first approximation.
It is common for relatively new CEO to push the bad news into early part of his tenure, but no-one can be sure. And his chairman knows the business very well, (unlike previous chairman) so I think it is most likely a transparent reflection of actual performance.
I will be watching to see if IPL's AN production is down same amount. It is hard to compare exactly, since IPL has large fertilizer segment Orica doesn't have but the businesses have a lot of similarities.
The spun off water care business is doing well under new management, according to sources, but I respect the idea of concentrating on one business that you dominate. The Minnova business looks to have been a poor acquisition, top of the cycle etc, but hindsight makes critics look brighter than they are.
ORI Price at posting:
$13.42 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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