Something to keep an eye on is the 14 day VWAP - it's currently...

Something to keep an eye on is the 14 day VWAP - it's currently above $2.54 and looks like some more good volume coming today at $2.87 - $2.88

If the Schemes do fall over, there will be a capital raise and I would think this would likely be around 10% below the 14 day VWAP (so currently $2.30 ish and growing).

Remember that around 70% of all shares are held by VRC, Mittleman, Spheria and Sethu - I just don't see any way this group would allow a CR at a stupidly low price diluting their own massive holdings (particularly the decision makers, VRC). Spheria and Mittleman have both offered recapitalisation efforts, I would suggest that an entitlement offer to existing holders would be able to raise sufficient funds without big discounting.

The reason for big discounting on a CR is to attract new investors that need convincing - we already have a register that arguably feels $3.00 is still below fair value and two majors with deep pockets (plus BGH offering $3.00, so some of their nearly $600m could become part of the solution too). Does anyone believe BGH are saying "take $3.00 now, or our next offer will be $2.00 / we walk away entirely ?"

Mittleman and Spheria have established a base share price with their massive investments in the past few months, so they both have a huge amount of influence and there's a great level of SP support because of this.

All up, I feel that if existing holders knock back $3.00 as undervalued, many would also then top up if given the opportunity at (say) $2.50.

This rhetoric that the share price could tumble if we don't "take our medicine" is just astonishing. That would require large numbers of holders to dump large numbers of shares rapidly. Tell me, who is going to dump their shares in such big numbers? With 70% of shares held by just 4 "hands" and a buyer willing to pay $3.00 for all 195m shares, it completely defies logic to suggest the SP "could drop like a stone". It's an ambit claim and the only word for it is disgraceful.