Nah. The churn rate is not as simple as that. A customer churns when they leave a gym location. They may sign up at a different location or they may resume their membership over winter etc. The retention rate over 12 months was about 74% in 2019, so about half the churn come back in some form. But the problem is once you lose that customer they might not come back (can't afford it) or go to rival chain because it's cheaper/more convenient/newer equipment etc. You can spike up churn in the discount gym space by doing nothing more than opening a new gym next door with an identical product at the same price but with brand new equipment. That's the problem with low barriers to entry. There's some private equity sniffing around Anytime Fitness etc right now.
In other markets there tends to be a market share limit for discount gyms at around 20%. After that the economics start to get quite marginal.
Maybe it's just a coincidence that the owners of AF started shopping it around as the discounters got up to 20% market share...
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Just some food for thought.
Nah. The churn rate is not as simple as that. A customer churns...
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